Global coal demand has reached a plateau at record levels, with the world's appetite for coal stabilizing after years of post-pandemic growth. According to the International Energy Agency's Coal 2025 report, coal market demand is on course to rise by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion tonnes, before beginning a gradual decline to 8.58 billion tonnes by 2030 . This stabilization masks significant regional divergences that are reshaping the global demand landscape.

The Plateau at Record Levels

Global coal demand in 2024 reached an estimated 8,805 million tonnes, an increase of 1.5% on the previous year, with growth concentrated in Asia while advanced economies continued their structural decline . Global demand growth slowed each year since 2021, with 2025 recording only 0.4% growth—an increase of around 30 million tonnes—significantly below the 1.4% increase seen in 2024 .

China and India accounted for 71% of global consumption in 2024, reinforcing the eastward shift in demand . In 2025, for the first time since 2015, China's coal-fired electricity generation fell, while India's coal-fired generation declined for only the third time in five decades due to an early and intense monsoon . Coal use in the U.S. rose 10% in 2025, reversing a 15-year decline, driven by higher natural gas prices and policy measures slowing coal plant retirements . In the European Union, coal demand fell by just 5%—a much slower rate than the 23% and 11% declines in 2023 and 2024—due to low hydropower and wind output .

Regional Demand Drivers

China, the world's largest consumer accounting for over half of global demand, is expected to see coal use remain broadly unchanged from its 2024 level at around 4.95 billion tonnes in 2025, before a gradual decrease to 4.77 billion tonnes by 2030 . While China saw strong electricity demand growth in 2025, this was met by fast growth in solar PV, wind, hydropower, and nuclear generation, causing coal electricity generation to decline by around 1.5% . However, declines in the power sector and energy-intensive industry (steel and cement output shrank by 4% and 7%, respectively) were largely offset by an increase in demand for coal for plastics and chemical production .

India is anticipated to become the largest growth market for coal, with demand set to rise by 3% per year on average, leading to an overall increase of over 200 million tonnes by 2030 . By 2030, India's total coal demand is projected to increase by 17%, driven primarily by power and industrial demand . The fastest growth is forecast in Southeast Asia, with demand set to increase by over 4% per year to 2030 .

Outlook to 2030

Looking ahead, global coal demand is forecast to continue its plateau, albeit falling slightly by the end of the decade, returning to the level seen in the years prior to 2023 . China's share remains dominant, although its coal demand flattens as renewables expand and coal's role in the power sector shifts towards flexibility . India emerges as the main source of incremental demand, adding 225 million tonnes from 2025 to 2030, while ASEAN countries contribute 127 million tonnes . In contrast, the European Union and the United States register further declines of 153 million tonnes and 106 million tonnes, respectively, as phase-out policies and fuel switching accelerate . The Coal Market demand outlook underscores that while Asia remains the engine of consumption, the structural decline in advanced economies and the rapid expansion of renewables will gradually reshape the global demand landscape.

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